TED演讲之伟大预言 汉斯·罗素林:东方崛起(7)
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Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
好，回到我的预测。但两国何时能迎头赶上？我们必须使用传统图表。
I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there.
竖轴代表着人均收入，穷富递进相增。
And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
回溯到1858年，世界由此开始。让我们来观察下世界将会如何改变。
You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
中国正处于半殖民半封建时期，而他们国民收入已降低至印度的水准。
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
同一时间，英美则越来越富有。二战后，英国被美国赶超。
But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform.
与此同时，独立的曙光则洒在中印两国头上。经济经过改革后开始增长。
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
增长速率加快，并且加上国际货币组织的预测，这正是两国于2014年会到达的水平。
Now, the question is, “When will the catch up take place?” Look at, look at the United States.
现时的问题则是：“他们何时会赶上？”再来回看下美国。
Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That’s the dot com bubble.
看的见那些泡泡？不是我的泡沫，而是经济泡沫。
This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
看，雷曼兄弟的门槛在这。看这里的下滑趋势。英国也因受影响而下滑。
So they doesn’t seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
这些国家走的并不是阳光大道。反而是崎岖不平的。
And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
是故关注经济增长的人们则转移视线至亚洲。
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that.
我们将日本也加进来。日本是日趋上升。
We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place.
日本是这样发展的。日本也加入美英的行列。毫无疑问，他们追的很快，且赶上了。
Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
看看日本怎么做的。直到完全赶上，日本是这样发展的，接下来就紧随着高收入国家的脚步。
But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better.
不过我做出的预测则是这样的。是福祸相依的。
It’s always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it’s even more difficult to predict about the past.
未来是难以预测的。偏偏有一位历史学家告诉我过去更难预测。
演讲简介：
汉斯·罗素林曾在印度学习，那时，他意料到亚洲可以重夺其经济霸主地位。在TED印度，他用他神奇的泡泡图表来预测中印两国何时会赶超美国。