TED演讲之伟大预言 汉斯·罗素林:东方崛起(5)
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In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world.
在1949年，新中国的诞生使全世界都为之惊奇。
And what happened? What happens in the after independence? You can see that the health started to improve.
之后发生了什么？在独立之后发生了什么？正如你所见，国民的健康有所进步。
Children started to go to school. Health services were provided. This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
儿童们有学上。医疗设施也逐渐出现。现正是大跃进时期，中国摔了一大跤。
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. China recovered. Then they said, “Nevermore, stupid central planning.”
这是由毛泽东统一计划的。中国恢复元气后，他们则说：“前事不忘，后事之师。”
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. And they were catching up indeed.
中国又日趋上升，印度则是吊车尾。他们都正迎头赶上。
And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.
两国的国民健康大大改善，然后经济水平仍有待提高。
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left.
现在来到1978年，毛泽东已去世，新一代领导出现。
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. And he said, “Doesn’t matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.”
而邓小平正冉冉上升。他说：“不管黑猫白猫，抓到老鼠就是好猫。”
Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
因为这正是这两只大猫想做的。正如你们所知，中印两只大猫是想要抓住那边的老鼠。
And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy.
因此他们决定不仅要发展教育和公共卫生，也要开始发展经济。
And the market reformer was successful there. In ’92 India follows with a market reform.
改革开放是成功的。在1992年印度也开始了经济改革。
And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
他们走的很近，而且两国颇多相似之处，而且差异不多。
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
他们齐头并进。可是能迎头赶上么？
This is the big question today. There they are today.
这是现今世界的一个大问题。今天，他们处在哪里。
Now what does it mean that the — the averages there — this is the average of China.
这说明了—— 他们的平均水平，这是中国的平均水平。
If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. Shanghai is already there.
假如将中国分开来看，看，上海已经赶上了。上海已经在上面哪里。
And it’s healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there.
而且市民的平均寿命比美国还长。然而，贵州，中国最穷的一个内陆省，在那里。
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see this enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.
假如我将贵州分成城市和乡下两部分，贵州乡下仍继续下滑。在中国的迅速经济发展下，隐藏着极大的问题。
演讲简介：
汉斯·罗素林曾在印度学习，那时，他意料到亚洲可以重夺其经济霸主地位。在TED印度，他用他神奇的泡泡图表来预测中印两国何时会赶超美国。