TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(4)

Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity; they die out when they’re replaced by something else.


These things tend to happen every 25 years. 40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technologies.


The interesting thing — by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.

这有趣的事情– 顺便一提,这里的速度,不好意思,高速旅行是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。

These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.


Here’s the biggie, and that is, you don’t have innovation cycles if the government develops and the government uses it.


You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net. Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.


But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity, all the benefit from it.


Private sector has to do it. Keep that in mind. I put down innovation — I’ve looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.

私营部门不得不这么做。记住它。我提出发明创新– 我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期,但我什么也没发现。

The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space, and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned space flights in the world — the very first year.


In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed. There were only three or four flights in 2003.


In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights to the international manned station.


And I had to fly three in Mojave with my little group of a couple dozen people in order to get to a total of five,


which was the number the same year back in 1961. There is no growth. There’s no activity. There’s no nothing.

这是1961年的数字。 没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。

This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne. This is a picture here taken from orbit.


Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.


We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough — at least as safe as the early airlines — so that can be done.

我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片,非常安全地做这件事– 至少像早期的航线一样安全–所以可以做。

And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage to go out and try that as a small company.





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