TED演讲之伟大预言 胡安·恩利克斯:令人吃惊的新科技(3)
If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like. The orange slice is what's discretionary. Everything else is mandated.
如果你们去看看联邦政府的预算，就是这个样子的。橙色部分是自由资金，别的都是强制性的。
It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.
在整件事情里即使我们切断通向阿拉斯加的桥也不会发生什么变化。
So what we have to start thinking about doing is capping our medical spending because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.
所以我们不得不开始计划要做的，就是封住医疗支出，因为这是一头将会要吞噬掉所有预算的怪物。
We've got to start thinking about asking people to retire a little bit later. If you're 60 to 65 you retire on time. Your 401(k) just got nailed.
我们开始想要求人们晚一点退休。如果你是在60倒65岁之间正常退休，你的退休金刚刚只受到一些影响。
If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more. If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years.
如果你是50到60岁之间，我们希望你再多做两年。如果你50不到，我们希望你再多做4年。
The reason why that's reasonable is, when your grandparents were given Social Security, they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.
这样做合理的原因是，当你祖父获得社会保障时，他们在65岁时开始领，68岁时领完。
Sixty-eight is young today. We've also got to cut the military about three percent a year.
如今68岁算年轻了。我们也需要每年削减军费3％。
We've got to limit other mandatory spending. We've got to quit borrowing as much, because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.
并且限制其他强制开销。我们不能再借这么多钱，否则利息会吞噬整个预算。
And we've got to end up with a smaller government. And if we don't start changing this trend line, we are going to lose the dollar and start to look like Iceland.
最后就剩下一个更小的政府。如果我们不开始改变这个趋势，就将会蒙受经济上的损失，就会沦为象冰岛一样。
I got what you're thinking. This is going to happen when hell freezes over. But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.
我知道你们在想什么。这一切只有在地狱封冻了才会发生。但是我提醒你今年11月维加斯的确下雪了。
Here's what happens if you don't address this stuff. So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis back in the late '80s.
如果你们不处理这些事，就将会发生的以下情况。日本发生过一次财政地产危机，在80年代后期。
And its 225 largest companies today are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.
今天它的225家最大的企业，只有相当于18年前四分之一的价值。
We don't fix this now, how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026? Because that's the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.
我们现在不解决这个问题，你是否乐意在2026年看到一个到琼斯3500点？因为这就是不处理这些事情的后果。
And unless you want this person to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States, we'd better deal with this stuff.
除非你希望这个人不仅变成佛罗里达州的首席财政官，并且掌管美国经济，我们最好处理好这些事情。
That's the short term. That's the flame part. That's the financial crisis.
以上是目前的情况，就是火焰的部分。这就是金融危机。
演讲简介：
即使庞大的银行纷纷崩溃，胡安 恩利克斯认为巨大的复苏仍然会来到。但别指望你的选票会起作用，或者股票交易。它会来自科学实验室，并且会带来更敏捷的身体与思维。我们的后代将会变得不同。
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