TED演讲:我们能在打造人工智能的同时掌握控制权吗?(7)
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No one seems to notice that referencing the time horizon is a total non sequitur.
似乎没有人注意到以时间作为参考系是得不出合理的结论的。
If intelligence is just a matter of information processing,
如果说智慧只包括信息处理，
and we continue to improve our machines, we will produce some form of superintelligence.
然后我们继续改善这些机器，那么我们终将生产出超级智能。
And we have no idea how long it will take us to create the conditions to do that safely. Let me say that again.
但是，我们无法预估将花费多长时间来创造实现这一切的安全环境。我再重复一遍。
We have no idea how long it will take us to create the conditions to do that safely.
我们无法预估将花费多长时间来创造实现这一切的安全环境。
And if you haven’t noticed, 50 years is not what it used to be.
你们可能没有注意过，50年的概念已今非昔比。
This is 50 years in months. This is how long we’ve had the iPhone.
这是用月来衡量50年的样子。红色的点是代表苹果手机出现的时间。
This is how long “The Simpsons” has been on television.
这是《辛普森一家》在电视上播出以来的时间。
Fifty years is not that much time to meet one of the greatest challenges our species will ever face.
要做好准备面对人类历史上前所未有的挑战，50年时间并不是很长。
Once again, we seem to be failing to have an appropriate emotional response to what we have every reason to believe is coming.
就像我刚才说的，我们对确定会来临的事情做出了不合理的回应。
The computer scientist Stuart Russell has a nice analogy here.
计算机科学家斯图尔特·罗素给出了一个极好的类比。
He said, imagine that we received a message from an alien civilization, which read:
他说，想象我们从外太空接收到一条讯息，上面写着：
“People of Earth, we will arrive on your planet in 50 years. Get ready.”
“地球上的人类，我们将在五十年后到达你们的星球，做好准备吧。”
And now we’re just counting down the months until the mothership lands?
于是我们就开始倒计时，直到它们的“母舰”着陆吗？
We would feel a little more urgency than we do.
在这种情况下我们会感到更紧迫。