CILACAP SECURITY CYBER TEAM
Overall, the international financial authorities have handled this crisis the same way as previous ones: They bailed out the failing institutions and applied monetary and fiscal stimulus. But this crisis was much bigger and, at first, the same techniques did not work. The rescue of Lehman Brothers failed. That was a game-changing event: financial markets actually ceased to f...
We are at the end of an era, but we are not fully aware of it. The two forms of economic organization — State Capitalism and International Capitalism are in competition with each other. Neither of them is attractive. The Washington Consensus has failed. International Capitalism in its present form has proven itself inherently unstable because it lacks adequate regulation. It...
The range of currencies included in the SDRs would have to be widened and some of the newly added currencies, which would include the renminbi, may not be fully convertible. Therefore the dollar could still reestablish itself as the preferred reserve currency, provided it is prudently managed. “特别提款权”中涵盖的货币范围也必须扩大，包括人民币在内的一些新增的货币可能不能完全...
This can be seen in Europe. And if European countries cannot agree among themselves, how can the rest of the world? During the crisis, Europe could not reach a Europe-wide agreement on guaranteeing the financial system; each country had to guarantee its own. As things stand now, the Euro is an incomplete currency. It has a common central bank but it does not have a common tr...
The Chinese leadership would need to be even more far-sighted than President Obama. They are in the driver's seat and if they moved towards a more open society they would have to give up some of their privileges. Right now, the Chinese public is willing to subordinate individual freedom to political stability and economic advancement, but that may not continue indefinite...
The Chinese economy is of course much smaller than the United States; with a smaller motor, the world economy is likely to move forward at a slower pace. But within these limits a tectonic shift is taking place between the United States and China with third parties reorienting themselves to the source of positive impulses. The shift may not be permanent or irreversible, but ...
Thank you. In these lectures, I have offered a conceptual framework for a better understanding of human events. These events are not determined by timelessly valid scientific laws. Such laws exist, of course, but they are not sufficient to determine the course of events. The complexity of the situations is one reason, and the role of the participants' thinking is another...
This time it may be different, because there has been a shift in power from the regional to the central authorities, and the local officials of the banks are no longer under the control of the local provincial authorities — but success cannot be taken for granted. Moreover, China may be dragged by a global slowdown. But if Cbhina flounders, the global economy loses its motor...
The international financial system, as it was reconstructed after the Second World War, did not create a level playing field; it was lopsided by design. The international financial institutions — the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — were organized as shareholding companies in which the rich countries held a disproportionate share of the votes and also control...
And, as I have tried to show, democracy is in deep trouble in America. The financial crisis has inflicted hardship on a population that does not like to face harsh reality. President Obama has deployed the "confidence multiplier" and claims to have contained the recession. If there is a double dip the population will become susceptible to all kinds of fear mongerin...
The globalization of financial markets that took place since the 1980s was a market fundamentalist project spearheaded by the United States and the United Kingdom. Allowing financial capital to move around freely in the world made it difficult to tax it or to regulate it. This put financial capital in a privileged position. Governments had to pay more attention to the requir...
As things stand now, the financial system of each country is being sustained and supported by its own government. The governments are primarily with their own economies. This tends to give rise to financial protectionism, which threatens to disrupt and perhaps destroy global financial markets. British regulators will never again rely on the Icelandic authorities and countrie...
Fortunately, Europe had the benefit of the social safety net. It held down European growth rates in good times, but it served its purpose in the downturn and the recession in Euroland turned out to be less severe than expected. Now that the fears of an economic collapse have subsided, the European Union is showing some signs of political revival. For instance, the European C...
The United States has been at the center of the international financial system ever since the Second World War. The dollar has served as the main international currency and the United States has derived immense benefits from that position but lately it has abused its privilege. Starting in the 1980s it has built up an ever increasing current account deficit. This could have ...
Why should the United States initiate changes in a system of which it had been the main beneficiary? Because the system cannot survive in its present form and the United States has more to lose if it is not in the forefront of reforming it. America lost a lot of power and influence during the Bush presidency. Without far-sighted leadership, the relative position of the Unite...
After the collapse of the Soviet entire the United States emerged as the sole superpower. No other power, or the combination of powers, could challenge it's supremacy. But the unipolar world did not take root. When President Bush sought to assert America's supremacy by invading Iraq on false pretences he achieved the exact opposite of what he intended. The United Sta...
To sum up, the world is facing a choice between two fundamentally different forms of organization. We may label them international capitalism and state capitalism. The former, represented by the United States, has broken down and the latter, represented by China, is in the ascendant. The path of least resistance leads to the gradual disintegration of the international financ...
We are at a moment in which the rage of uncertainties is unusually wide. We have just passed through the worst financial crisis since World War Two. It is quantitatively much larger and qualitatively different from other financial crisis. The only relevant comparisons are with the Japanese real estate bubble which burst in 1991 and from which Japan has still not recovered, a...
Effectively the international (financial) system has a tow-tier structure：Countries that can borrow in their own currency constitute the center, and those, whose borrowings are denominated in one of the hard currencies, constitute the periphery. If individual countries get into difficulties they receive assistance but only on strict conditions. That holds true whether they ...
This is what a new Bretton woods conference could accomplish in one fell swoop. It would reconstitute the IMF to better reflect the prevailing pecking order among states and revise its methods of operation. It would decide how to treat financial institutions that are too big to fail and it would consider new rules to control capital movements because the total freedom of fin...