TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(3)

If you look at what happened — this little black line is as fast as man ever flew, 如果你看一看发生了什么 — 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快, and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters and the blue line is commercial air transport. 这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员,蓝色代表商业飞机运输。 You notice here's a big jump when I was a little kid &...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(2)

Let's take a snapshot at aviation. And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened. 让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。曾有四年短暂的美好时期,那时发生了许多奇迹。 It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, "Ooh, hey, I can do that." 那段时期开始于1908年,当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行,每个人都说...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(1)

I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space. 我想从这里开始,休斯顿,我们有个问题。我们已经有二十年没有进展了,在人类太空飞行方面。 In fact, we've regressed. We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth to go out and continue this very important...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(4)

Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else. 简短地谈一下发明创造的周期,周期发展时会衍生许多活动,当这些活动被其他活动取代,此周期就灭亡了。 These things tend to happen every 25 years. 40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technolo...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(6)

Not the bank's computer or Lockheed's computer, but the home computer was for games. 不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑,家用电脑是用于游戏的。 For a whole decade it was for fun — we didn't even know what it was for. 对于整整一代来说,它是用于消遣–我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。 But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry, big...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(5)

Well, first of all, what's going to happen next? The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players. 那么,首先,接下来会发生什么?第一产业将会数量巨大,参与者众多。 There's another one announced just last week. And it will be sub-orbital. 上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。这次飞行将会是亚轨道。 And the reason it has to be sub-orbital is, there is not solutions f...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(9)

I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful, very successful, private space flight industry. 我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的,非常成功的私人太空飞船行业。 Whether we're first or not really doesn't matter. The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde. 无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(7)

They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that's going on after that. 他们被巨大的进步所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进步。 There were a couple of examples here. The military fighters had a — highest-performance military airplane was the SR71. 这里有两个例子。军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机是SR71。 It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly, and ...

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TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(8)

You remember the space race in the '60s was for national prestige, because we lost the first two milestones. 你们还记得60年代的太空竞赛是为了国家的声誉,因为我们丢失了最初的两个里程碑。 We didn't lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it — you can argue that's not a technical loss. 我们不...

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