TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(4)

The entire economic team, all the way up to president Xi Jinping himself, 所有的经济小组,一直到习近平总书记本人, talk very specifically and clearly about financial risks as gray rhinos, and how they can tame them. 都会很清晰具体地讲述经济风险,并用上灰犀牛的比喻,并且讨论他们会怎样制服它。 Now, to be sure, China and the US have very, very different systems of government, w...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(1)

So what if there were a highly obvious problem right in front of you? 假如有一个非常明显的问题摆在你面前, One that everyone was talking about, one that affected you directly. 一个所有人都在讨论的,直接影响你的问题。 Would you do everything within your power to fix things before they got worse? Don't be so sure. 请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前,尽你所能去解决它吗?不要太确...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(3)

The black swan lends itself to the idea that we don't have power over our futures. 这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点,那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。 And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore it entirely. 不幸的是,我们越是这样想,我们就越有可能对之不予重视,甚至完全忽视它。 And this dangerous dynamic masks another...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(2)

As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down. Banks collapsed, global stock markets lost nearly half their value, 如各位所知,2008年一切都轰然倒塌。银行倒闭,全世界的股票市场丢失了接近一半的价值, millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure. And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work. 数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。而在社会基层,将近...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(5)

So the first one has to do with culture, society, the people around you. 首先是与文化和社会因素有关,那些你身边的人。 If you think that someone around you is going to help pick you up when you fall, 如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候,你身边的人会帮助你, you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller. 那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。 And that allows us to take good ch...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(6)

But we have the opportunity and the ability to correct those blind spots. 但是我们有能力和机会去矫正那些盲点。 I spend a lot of time talking with people of all walks of life about the gray rhinos in their life and their attitudes. 我花了很多时间和各行各业的人交流关于他们人生中的“灰犀牛”和他们对此的态度。 And you might think that the people who are more afraid of risk, who ar...

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TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(7)

So some people go about life denying it. Other people blame everyone except themselves. 因此,有些人开始怀疑人生。其他人开始责怪除他们自己以外的所有人。 Like my friend who says he's not ever going to give up his SUV until they stop building coal plants in China. 就像我朋友曾经说的,他永远不会放弃他的SUV,除非他们停止在中国挖油田。 But we have an opportunity to change. No...

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