SDcamps•演辩营全国英语演讲与辩论赛
Now I've been sort of banging on about this for the last couple of months, 在过去的几个月里，我反复在讨论这个问题， and people sometimes say to me, "Well Tim, it's kind of obvious. Obviously trial and error is very important. 有时有人跟我说：“提姆，这不是很显然么，很显然试验和排除错误很重要， Obviously experimentation is very important. Now why are you just wand...
Five thousand products — that's still nothing. 5000个产品，这还没什么。 Five thousand products — imagine counting every product category in Cesar Hidalgo's data. 5000个产品，想象我们来数塞萨尔·伊达尔戈数据中的每个产品的目录。 Imagine you had one second per product category. 想象你每一秒钟，听到一个产品种类的名字 In about the length of this session, you wo...
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that. 而有的时候我们需要把这种感觉抖掉。 Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy. It isn't easy. It's incredibly painful. 现在我不想假装这是件容易的事情。这并不容易。这会是个痛苦的过程。 And since I started talking about this subject and researching this subject, 自从我开始谈论这个话题，研究这个话题， I've be...
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can into two equal groups. 所以阿奇就把他的病人平分成两组人。他给其中的一半维他命C。他给另一半维他命B12。 He gives half of them vitamin C. He gives half of them vitamin B12. 他给其中的一半维他命C。他给另一半维他命B12。 He very carefully and meticulously notes his results in an exercise book. 他非常小心谨慎把他的结果记录在一...
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us. 所以这就是我们所处环境的复杂性。 This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting. 这也许正是为什么我们发现“万能神力”这么有吸引力的原因。 We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture, we can post some graphs, we get it, we understand how this works." 我们喜欢退一步说：“我们可以来画一张图，我们可...
It is dangerous for patients to recover from heart attacks at home. 让心脏病人在家康复是危险的。 They should be in hospital." And there's this uproar, 他们应该留在医院里。”这引起了一片哗然， and all the doctors start pounding the table and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie. 医生们开始拍桌子，说道：“我们一直说阿奇，你这样做是不道德的。 You'r...
Until then, until then I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error and why we should abandon the God complex. 到那时候，到那时候，我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题，以及为什么我们需要抛弃“万能神力”的态度。 Because it's so hard to admit our own fallibility. It's so uncomfortable. 因为我们很难承认我们自己是很容易犯错的。这令人感到很不舒服。 And Archie Cochr...
How do you do it? Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent. 你怎么做呢？ 你有这么一大池子的液体清洁剂。 You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle. You create a spray of detergent. 你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴，你制造了清洁剂喷雾。 Then the spray dries. It turns into powder. It falls to the floor. 喷雾干燥后就成了粉末，掉在地板上。 You scoop it up. You put...
It's the Second World War. A German prison camp. 这是二战期间，一个德国集中营。 And this man, Archie Cochrane, is a prisoner of war and a doctor, and he has a problem. 这个人，阿奇·卡克伦，是战俘也是一名医生，他遇到了一个问题。 The problem is that the men under his care are suffering from an excruciating and debilitating condition that Archie doesn't really understan...
Well let me give you an example. 让我来给你们一个例子。 Imagine for a moment that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you, there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs. 你们想象一下，现在如果站在你们面前的不是我，而是汉斯·罗斯林在展示他的图表。 You know Hans: the Mick Jagger of TED. 你们知道汉斯： TED的米克·贾格尔。 And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics, these...
I'm not even telling you the story because I think we should be running more carefully controlled randomized trials in all aspects of public policy, 我跟你说这个故事也不是因为我认为，我们在公共政策的各个方面，做随机抽样试验时，应该更小心， although I think that would also be completely awesome. 虽然我觉得这样做真的很好。 I'm telling you this story because Archie Coch...
We have no idea why it works, no idea at all. 我们不知道，为什么它那么高效，根本不知道。 And the moment you step back from the God complex — let's just try to have a bunch of stuff; 当你不再认为自己有万能神力——而是开始尝试一些东西； let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not — you can solve your problem. 用一个系统的...