Think about that one. Have you ever entered an argument thinking,在参加辩论的时候，你有没有想过&quotLet&#39s see if we can hash something out rather than fight it out.让我们看看能不能共同敲定一些事情，而非由一方说服另一方。What can we work out together?&quot有什么是我们可以共同协作的？And I think the argument-as-war metaphor inhibits those other kinds of

If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,倘若“地轴倾斜”理论被观察否定了its defenders would have had nowhere to go.它的支持者们就无路可退了No easily implemented change could make that tilt没有什么信手拈来的变动能让地轴的倾斜cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.在两个半球产生相同的季节The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all prog

So how can we find ways to make arguments yield something positive?所以我们如何去进行辩论，并使之有一些积极的影响呢？What we need is new exit strategies for arguments.我们所需要的是一个新的方式来终止一场辩论。But we&#39re not going to have new exit strategies for arguments但是我们没有办法找到一个新的方式去终止辩论，until we have new entry approaches to arguments.除非我

Think about that one. Have you ever entered an argument thinking,在参加辩论的时候，你有没有想过&quotLet&#39s see if we can hash something out rather than fight it out.让我们看看能不能共同敲定一些事情，而非由一方说服另一方。What can we work out together?&quot有什么是我们可以共同协作的？And I think the argument-as-war metaphor inhibits those other kinds of

If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,倘若“地轴倾斜”理论被观察否定了its defenders would have had nowhere to go.它的支持者们就无路可退了No easily implemented change could make that tilt没有什么信手拈来的变动能让地轴的倾斜cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.在两个半球产生相同的季节The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all prog

Our connection to reality is never just perception.而我们与现实的联系从不会只是感知It&#39s always, as Karl Popper put it, theory-laden.而是如卡尔·波普尔所说，充满着理论假设Scientific knowledge isn&#39t derived from anything.科学知识不是从什么直接推导而来It&#39s like all knowledge.而是像所有其他知识一样，It&#39s conjectural, guesswork, tested by observation, n

So I&#39m going to speak about a problem that I have and that&#39s that I&#39m a philosopher.让我从我的一个问题开始，那就是，我是一个哲学家。When I go to a party and people ask me what do I do当我参加派对时，人们问我，我是干什么的。and I say, &quotI&#39m a professor,&quot their eyes glaze over.我说，“我是个教授”，他们一下就失去了兴趣。When I go to an academic co

Well, my answer is going to make reference to three models for arguments.好了，为了回答这个问题，让我们来参照三种不同的辩论方式。The first model, let&#39s call this the dialectical model,第一种模式，让我们称之为辩证模式，is that we think of arguments as war, and you know what that&#39s like.这种模式的辩论更想是打仗，相信你们都经历过。There&#39s a lot of screaming a

My name is Dan Cohen, and I am academic, as he said.我叫丹·科恩，我是个学者，就像主持人介绍的。And what that means is that I argue.这意味着我经常需要辩论。It&#39s an important part of my life, and I like to argue.这是我生命中的重要组成部分，同时我喜欢辩论。And I&#39m not just an academic, I&#39m a philosopher,我不仅仅是个学者，我也是个哲学家，so I like to think that I&#

I&#39m sure that, throughout the hundred-thousand-odd years of our species&#39 existence, and even before,我十分确信在人类诞生以来的大概10万多年，甚至比这更长的时间里our ancestors looked up at the night sky, and wondered what stars are.我们的祖先仰望夜空，想知道那些星星究竟是什么Wondering, therefore, how to explain what they saw in terms of things u

Why a marriage contract and not any other reason for regular annual action?为什么是一纸婚书而不是其他什么原因使普西芬妮定期往返呢？Here is one. Persephone wasn&#39t released.我且来举个例子：普西芬妮并没有被放走She escaped, and returns every spring to take revenge on Hades, with her Spring powers.她逃走了，每年春天又回冥府找哈德斯报仇，用她春天的神力She cools his domain w

At the time, what they thought在那个时候，启蒙学者们认为distinguished science was a radical idea about things unseen, known as empiricism.科学的独特标志是一个关于不可见事物的激进看法，叫做经验主义All knowledge derives from the senses.认为所有的知识来自我们的感官Well, we&#39ve seen that that can&#39t be true.呵呵，我们知道这样说有些偏颇It did help by promoting observat

That all that, discovered in 40 years,这40年中的所有发现had not been in the previous hundred thousand,是数千年来所未有的was not for lack of thinking about stars, and all those other urgent problems they had.而这可不能归结为古人思维懒惰，对星星啊，还有那些迫切的问题不闻不问They even arrived at answers, such as myths,他们不光思考了，还给出了答案，比如说神话that dominate

OK, now, you all saw what changed, right?好，你们都看到了什么东西改变了，对吧？How many of you noticed that every one of those squares changed color?有多少人注意到每一个方块都变了颜色？Every one. I&#39ll just show you by running it again.每个都变了。我来重放一下。Even when you know that they&#39re all going to change color, it&#39s very hard to not

One of the most common ways of dividing the world一个把人类分成两大部分很普遍的方法is into those who believe and those who don&#39t--into the religious and the atheists.便是分为相信神的存在的一部分，以及不相信宗教信仰的另一部分--宗教教徒和无神论者And for the last decade or so,在最近的十年中it&#39s been quite clear what being an atheist means.对无神论者的定义已经是十分清楚的了T

Well a sermon wants to change your life and a lecture wants to give you a bit of information.宗教里的传教想改变你的生活，而一个演讲只是给你一些信息资料And I think we need to get back to that sermon tradition.我觉得我们有必要找回传教的习俗The tradition of sermonizing is hugely valuable,这个习俗是非常有用的because we are in need of guidance, morality and

Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,现在，让我把余下的时间花在对第三个重大问题的探讨上。because it&#39s more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.因为这个问题更加微妙，也可能难以把握。Think about some time in your life --试着回忆一下你生命中的某些时刻——some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,有些人可能从未体会过——但有些人

I would say that there are many, many gaps in secular life and these can be plugged.我觉得世俗的世界是有许多缺点的，但是那些缺点是可以被弥补的It&#39s not as though, as I try to suggest,但这不是说it&#39s not as though either you have religion and then you have to accept all sorts of things要么你相信宗教，然后你就要相信宗教所有的教条or you don&#39t have re

Now, this nice picture shows a thought-balloon, a thought-bubble.好了，这张图展示的是一个“思维泡泡”。I think everybody understands what that means.我想大家都知道这是什么意思。That&#39s supposed to exhibit the stream of consciousness.它展示了意识流。This is my favorite picture of consciousness that&#39s ever been done.这是到目前，我最喜欢的展示意识的图片。I

I want to talk today about今天我所要讲的是I&#39ve been asked to take the long view,他们让我谈谈长远的观点and I&#39m going to tell you what I think are the three biggest problems for humanity from this long point of view.我要告诉你们，我认为，从长远来看，人类面临着三大问题。Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers, which is

My view is that museums should take a leaf out of the book of religions.我觉得艺术馆应该向宗教学习And they should make sure that when you walk into a museum -- if I was a museum curator,艺术馆应该确保，当游客走进馆内时候--如果我是馆长I would make a room for love, a room for generosity.我会专门为爱，为慷慨而准备特定的展览All works of art are talking to

We recognize them in relation to corporations.我们还认同他们像个企业And corporations are very like religions in many ways, except they&#39re right down at the bottom of the pyramid of needs.公司企业和宗教有些相似之处，不过企业只提供最基本的物质They&#39re selling us shoes and cars.企业给我们鞋子和汽车Whereas the people who are selling us the highe

Existential risk -- the second big problem.存在风险——第二个重大问题。Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.存在风险是对人类生存，或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题？Well, let&#39s first look at the probability --让我们来看看可能性——a

Imagine a species that just didn&#39t have this neural machinery for processing music.假设有这样一个物种，它们刚好没有能够处理音乐的神经装置。And they would just stare at us with bafflement当我们花时间聆听一曲美妙的演奏时，when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,就像我们刚听到的那支，like the one we just heard -- because of people making

But part of the reason但另一方面的原因and that&#39s the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these即从人类的本质上看，它们也是很有价值的，is that they&#39re also intrinsically valuable.这也是为什么我们拥有追求这些特质的道德基础。It&#39s just better to be able to understand more of the world around you去理解你周围的世界和人and the people that you are

The other thing that religions know is we&#39re not just brains, we are also bodies.宗教还知道我们人类不仅仅有智慧，我们还有躯体And when they teach us a lesson, they do it via the body.所以他们通过身体来教会我们道理So for example, take the Jewish idea of forgiveness.举个例子，像是犹太人懂得宽容Jews are very interested in forgiveness and how we shoul

I&#39m interested in the kind of constituency that thinks something along these lines:我对有些情况非常感兴趣，有些人会说：that thinks, &quotI can&#39t believe in any of this stuff.“我完全不相信这些宗教I can&#39t believe in the doctrines.那些教义，那些学说I don&#39t think these doctrines are right.我觉得它们全部都是假的But,&quot a very important b

If you went to a top university -- let&#39s say you went to Harvard or Oxford or Cambridge --如果你去顶尖学府，像是哈佛，牛津，或者剑桥and you said, &quotI&#39ve come here because I&#39m in search of morality, guidance and consolation然后你对他们说，&quot我想找到指引，慰藉，和道德&quotI want to know how to live,&quot they would show you the

So then, you move off to this larger sphere of &quothuman +,&quot那么，然后我们迈步来到这片更大的人类空间，and you could continue that process我们不断地前进，and eventually explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.最终，在这片更大的空间，我们可以探索许多可能的生存方式。Now, why is that a good thing to do?那么，为什么这么做有益呢？Well, we know alr

I first found out about this confrontation when I was in graduate school, and it kind of blew me away.我第一次听说这个故事的时候还在念研究生，这个故事让我太惊讶了。I mean, how could the word scientist not have existed until 1833?我是说“科学家”这个词怎么可能是1833年才出现的？What were scientists called before?在那之前科学家们如何称呼自己？What had changed to make a