TED演讲:为什么智能统计数据是打击犯罪的关键(7)
In the tool that we’ve built, what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases from all around the United States,
在这个已经建立的这个工具里，我们收集了150万个案件，来自美国各地，
from cities, from counties, from every single state in the country, the federal districts.
包括城市，县，国内的每个州，联邦区。
And with those 1.5 million cases, which is the largest data set on pretrial in the United States today,
有了那150万个案例，这是美国审判前最大的数据库。
we were able to basically find that there were 900-plus risk factors that we could look at to try to figure out what mattered most.
截止到今天，我们基本上能够找到我们可以查看的九百多个危险因素，试着找出最重要的问题。
And we found that there were nine specific things that mattered all across the country and that were the most highly predictive of risk.
我们发现具体有九件事在全国范围内都很重要，是可预测的最高风险。
And so we built a universal risk assessment tool. And it looks like this. As you’ll see, we put some information in,
于是我们建立了一种通用的风险评估工具。它看起来就像这个。正如你所看到的，我们把一些信息列在上面，
but most of it is incredibly simple, it’s easy to use, it focuses on things like the defendant’s prior convictions,
但大多数都格外简单，它使用起来很容易，它侧重的方面是被告的前科，
whether they’ve been sentenced to incarceration, whether they’ve engaged in violence before,
他们是否曾被判处监禁，他们是否曾被卷入过暴力事件，
whether they’ve even failed to come back to court. And with this tool, we can predict three things.
他们是否甚至没能回到法庭。使用此工具，我们可以预测三件事。
First, whether or not someone will commit a new crime if they’re released.
第一，如果被释放的话，他们是否会再次犯罪。
Second, for the first time, and I think this is incredibly important,
第二，我第一次觉得，这一点非常重要，
we can predict whether someone will commit an act of violence if they’re released.
如果被释放的话，我们可以预测他们是否会进行暴力活动。
And that’s the single most important thing that judges say when you talk to them.
当你向他们问话的时候，法官说这是最重要的一件事。
And third, we can predict whether someone will come back to court.
第三，我们可以预测他们是否会回到法庭。
And every single judge in the United States of America can use it, because it’s been created on a universal data set.
美国的任何一名法官都可以使用它，因为它是由通用的数据库制成的。
What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool is this — it’s a dashboard.
如果他们使用了这个风险评估工具你就会看到这个–一个评分板。
At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score, six of course being the highest,
在顶部，是新的刑事犯罪活动评分，六当然是最高分，
and then in the middle you see, “Elevated risk of violence.”
然后在中间你可以看到“增长的暴力风险”
What that says is that this person is someone who has an elevated risk of violence that the judge should look twice at.
说的是，这个人进行暴力行为的概率有所升高，这是法官应该注意的重点。
And then, towards the bottom, you see the Failure to Appear Score,
然后在底部，你看到的是未能出庭的分数，
which again is the likelihood that someone will come back to court.
这也是判断此人会回到法庭的可能性。
当安妮米尔格拉姆2007年出任新泽西州的司法部长之时，很快便发现了某些惊人的事实：她的团队不仅对蹲监狱的人不甚了解，而且也无法确定他们所作的判决是否真正加强了公众安全。因此，她展开了一次鼓舞人心的探索，即将数据分析与统计分析应用到美国刑事司法体系当中。