TED演讲:如何让世界到2030年时变得更好(5)
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Let me show you on this chart.
我来给你们看下这张图。
So here on the vertical axis, I’ve put social progress, the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve.
我把社会进步放在这张图的纵轴上，这就是全球目标要努力实现的东西。
Higher is better. And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita.
越高越好。在横轴上的是人均国内生产总值。
Further to the right means richer.
越靠右边说明越富有。
And in there, I’m now going to put all the countries of the world, each one represented by a dot,
在这个区域中我要把世界上所有的国家放在里面，每个国家用一个点来代替，
and on top of that I’m going to put the regression line that shows the average relationship.
在这些点上面我会绘制一条回归曲线，来表现两个变量间的平均关系水平。
And what this tells us is that as we get richer, social progress does tend to improve.
这条曲线告诉了我们越富有，社会进步就越趋于增长。
However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP is buying us less and less social progress.
然而，当我们不断变富时，国内生产总值中每一额外美元可以换来的社会进步值却越来越少。
And now we can use this information to start building our forecast.
现在我们就可以用这些信息来进行我们的预测了。
So here is the world in 2015. We have a social progress score of 61 and a GDP per capita of $14,000.
2015年的世界，我们的社会进步得分是61分，人均国内生产总值是14000美元。
And the place we’re trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.
我们要努力到达的那个全球目标的分数，还记得吧，是75分。
So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP.
那我们现在的人均国内生产总值是14000美元。
How rich are we going to be in 2030? That’s what we need to know next.
到2030年我们会变得多富呢？这就是我们接下来想要知道的了。
Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture,
我们可以找到的最好的预测是美国农业部做的，
which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth over the next 15 years,
他们预测出了未来15年内3.1%的全球平均经济增长走势，
which means that in 2030, if they’re right, per capita GDP will be about $23,000.
这意味着如果它们是准确的话，到2030年，人均国内生产总值会达到大约23000美元。
So now the question is: if we get that much richer, how much social progress are we going to get?
那现在的问题就是：如果我们变得那么富有了，我们的社会进步会得到多少分呢？
Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte who checked and crunched the numbers,
我们咨询了德勤事务所里的经济学家，他们仔细地检查和研究了这些数字后，
and they came back and said, well, look: if the world’s average wealth goes from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year,
回来告诉了我们，来，看：如果世界平均财富从一年14000美元涨到一年23000美元，
social progress is going to increase from 61 to 62.4.
社会进步得分会从61分涨到62.4分。
Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.
真的是62.4分。仅仅增加了一点儿。
世界的发展离不开每个国家的发展,而衡量一个国家发展的标准是什么呢? 经济发展是否是关键因素？ Michael Green 先生有个很好的提议,那就是给每个国家一个成绩卡,就像在学校里管理各个学生一样,想知道自己的祖国在这所“地球大学”中的成绩如何吗? 我们是拖后腿了还是名列前茅呢?