TED演讲:为什么智能统计数据是打击犯罪的关键(5)

So I decided to focus on using data and analytics to help make the most critical decision in public safety,

所以我决定将重点集中在使用数据和分析,以在公共安全方面帮助作出最关键的判断,

and that decision is the determination of whether, when someone has been arrested,

这一决定是判断已经被逮捕的某个人,

whether they pose a risk to public safety and should be detained,

是否会对公共安全构成风险而被拘留,

or whether they don’t pose a risk to public safety and should be released.

还是不会对公共安全造成风险应被释放。

Everything that happens in criminal cases comes out of this one decision.

刑事案件中发生的一切都出自这一决定。

It impacts everything. It impacts sentencing. It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment. It impacts crime and violence.

它影响了全局。它影响了判刑。它影响到是否有人需要药物治疗。它影响了犯罪和暴力行为。

And when I talk to judges around the United States, which I do all the time now,

当我同全美众多法官交谈时,我现在无时无刻不在做这件事,

they all say the same thing, which is that we put dangerous people in jail, and we let non-dangerous, nonviolent people out.

他们都说着同样的话,我们把危险的人关进监狱,把没有危险的人、非暴力的人放出去。

They mean it and they believe it. But when you start to look at the data,

他们是认真的,他们相信自己所做的。但当你开始查看那些数据,

which, by the way, the judges don’t have, when we start to look at the data,

顺便提一句,那些法官没看过,当我们开始查看数据,

what we find time and time again, is that this isn’t the case.

我们一次又一次的发现,这不是个案。

We find low-risk offenders, which makes up 50 percent of our entire criminal justice population, we find that they’re in jail.

我们发现,占刑事司法总人数的50%的低风险罪犯被关在监狱里。

Take Leslie Chew, who was a Texas man who stole four blankets on a cold winter night.

举个例子,莱斯利丘是德克萨斯州人,在一个寒冷的冬夜偷了四个毯子。

He was arrested, and he was kept in jail on 3,500 dollars bail, an amount that he could not afford to pay.

他被拘捕,然后被关进监狱,需要三千五百美元保释金,这是一笔他支付不起的金额。

And he stayed in jail for eight months until his case came up for trial, at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.

他在监狱里呆了八个月,直到他的案子开庭,共花了纳税人9000多美元税款。

And at the other end of the spectrum, we’re doing an equally terrible job.

在另一个极端,我们所做的工作也同样糟糕。

The people who we find are the highest-risk offenders,

那些我们抓获的高危险罪犯,

the people who we think have the highest likelihood of committing a new crime if they’re released,

那些被认为一旦释放会有极高的可能性再次犯罪的人,

we see nationally that 50 percent of those people are being released.

在全国范围内,其中的50%正在回归社会。

当安妮米尔格拉姆2007年出任新泽西州的司法部长之时,很快便发现了某些惊人的事实:她的团队不仅对蹲监狱的人不甚了解,而且也无法确定他们所作的判决是否真正加强了公众安全。因此,她展开了一次鼓舞人心的探索,即将数据分析与统计分析应用到美国刑事司法体系当中。

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