TED演讲之面对灾难:如何在核袭击中生存(5)
And what happened was — when we get in to chapter two of the nuclear threat era, which started back in 1945.
而现实是当我们进入1945年开始的核威胁时期的第二阶段
Chapter two starts in 1991.
第二个阶段是从1991年开始的
When the Soviet Union broke up,
当苏联解体之后
we effectively lost that adversary as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.
美国实际上上失去了竞争对手，这个长久以来潜在的袭击者基本不复存在了
It's not completely gone. I'm going to come back to that.
但苏联的威胁也不是完全消失了，我一会儿会再提到这一点
But from 1991 through the present time, emphasized by the attacks of 2001,
从1991年开始直到现在，尤其是2001年的”9.11“事件说明
the idea of an all-out nuclear war has diminished and the idea of a single event,
全面爆发的核战争的可能性已经逐渐减小，
act of nuclear terrorism is what we have instead.
取而代之的是单独的核恐怖袭击活动
Although the scenario has changed very considerably,
情况虽然和以前大不一样
the fact is that we haven't changed our mental image of what a nuclear war means.
但事实是我们头脑里对于核战争的理解并未改变
So I'm going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.
我一会儿会说明这意味着什么
So, what is a nuclear terror threat?
那么，什么是核恐怖袭击呢？
And there's four key ingredients to describing that.
它有四个关键组成部分
First thing is that the global nuclear weapons,
第一个是全球范围内核武器
in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps, happen to be not uniformly secure.
就是我之前给大家看的那张地图所显示的核武器储备，其实并不是全部都处于安全状态
And it's particularly not secure in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.
尤其是那些前苏联所拥有的核武器，现在这些核武器在俄罗斯手中
There are many, many sites where warheads are stored
这些核弹头储存在很多地方
and, in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials,
可事实上，这其中又很多地方对于储存，
like highly enriched uranium and plutonium, are absolutely not safe.
如高浓缩铀和钚这样的裂变物质而言，并不安全
They're available to be bought, stolen, whatever.
这些核弹头可能被贩卖或是被偷窃
They're acquirable, let me put it that way.
换句话说，它们可以被其他人得到
From 1993 through 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency documented 175 cases of nuclear theft,
从1993年到2006年，国际原子能机构记录在案的核失窃案件就有175起
18 of which involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium,
其中18起和高浓缩铀和钚有关
the key ingredients to make a nuclear weapon.
这些是制造核武器的关键原料
The global stockpile of highly enriched uranium is about 1,300, at the low end, to about 2,100 metric tons.
全球的高浓缩铀储备大约为1300吨到2100吨之间
More than 100 megatons of this is stored in particularly insecure Russian facilities.
其中至少有100吨储存在非常不安全的俄罗斯的储备设施中
How much of that do you think it would take to actually build a 10-kiloton bomb?
大家觉得造一个一万吨级当量的核弹，大约需要多少高浓缩铀呢？
Well, you need about 75 pounds of it.
你需要大约75磅高浓缩铀
So, what I'd like to show you is what it would take to hold 75 pounds of highly enriched uranium.
所以，我想给大家展示一下，那就是75磅高浓缩铀大约是多少呢？
This is not a product placement.
我这可不是在做软广告。
It's just — in fact, if I was Coca Cola, I'd be pretty distressed about this —
这只是…事实上，如果我是可口可乐公司，我一定为此非常郁闷
but basically, this is it.
但是基本上，就是这么多
This is what you would need to steal or buy out of that 100-metric-ton stockpile
你只要从那100吨没有被安全储存的原料中偷取或者购买这么多就够了
that's relatively insecure to create the type of bomb that was used in Hiroshima.
储存设施偷取的高浓缩铀总量，从而制造出一个核弹威力相当于在广岛爆炸的那枚核弹
Now you might want to look at plutonium as another fissionable material that you might use in a bomb.
现在你们可能想看看如果是钚，另一种可用于制造核弹的裂变物质
That — you'd need 10 to 13 pounds of plutonium.
你需要10到13磅钚
Now, plutonium, 10 to 13 pounds: this.
钚，10到13磅，这是这么多，
This is enough plutonium to create a Nagasaki-size atomic weapon.
这些钚足以制造一个威力相当于在长崎爆炸的那枚原子弹
演讲简介：
核恐怖已经随着冷战的结束而减弱，但是灾难医学专家伊文·雷德莱纳提醒我们这个威胁依然存在。他回顾了历史上一些荒谬的关于应对核袭击的对策，并给出了一些切实可行的在核袭击中生存的建议。
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