TED演讲之面对灾难:如何在核袭击中生存(7)
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Seven million ship cargo containers come into the United States every year.
每年有七百万集装箱货船驶入美国
Five to seven percent only are inspected — five to seven percent.
其中只有百分之五到七接受了检查–百分之五到七
This is Alexander Lebed, who was a general that worked with Yeltsin,
这是亚历山大·列别德，他是和叶利钦时代的将军
who talked about, and presented to Congress,
他向国会介绍并展示了
this idea that the Russians had developed —
俄罗斯设计的一种方案
these suitcase bombs. They were very low yield — 0.1 to one kiloton,
这些手提箱炸弹似乎并不厉害，每个只有0.1到1千吨当量
Hiroshima was around 13 kilotons — but enough to do an unbelievable amount of damage.
在广岛爆炸的那枚可是一万三千吨当量的，但它们还是足以造成难以想象的破坏
And Lebed came to the United States and told us that many, many–
列别德曾来到美国，告诉我们有很多很多的–
more than 80 of the suitcase bombs were actually not accountable.
超过80个这样的手提箱炸弹事实上是不受控制的
And they look like this. They're basically very simple arrangements.
它们看起来就是这个样子。本质上来说结构非常简单。
You put the elements into a suitcase.
你把这些部件放进一只手提箱
It becomes very portable.
炸弹就变得非常便携。
The suitcase can be conveniently dropped in your trunk of your car.
这些手提箱非常容易就能放入你的汽车后备箱
You take it wherever you want to take it, and you can detonate it.
你可以把它带到任何你想去地方然后引爆它
You don't want to build a suitcase bomb,
如果你不想制造这种手提箱炸弹
and you happen to get one of those insecure nuclear warheads that exist.
而你又碰巧得到了一个因为安全措施没做好，而被人偷出来的核弹头
This is the size of the "Little Boy" bomb that was dropped at Hiroshima.
这是那枚在广岛爆炸的“小男孩”核弹的大小
It was 9.8 feet long, weighed 8,800 pounds.
长3米，重达4吨。
You go down to your local rent-a-truck and for 50 bucks or so,
你可以联系你周围的卡车出租公司，花大概50美元
you rent a truck that's got the right capacity,
租一辆容量正好的卡车
and you take your bomb, you put it in the truck and you're ready to go.
你带上你的核弹，把它装进卡车，然后你就可以出发了
It could happen. But what it would mean and who would survive?
这些是可能发生的。但重要的是这意味着什么，以及谁可以逃过这一劫
You can't get an exact number for that kind of probability,
你没法得知这件事的可能性究竟是多少
but what I'm trying to say is that we have all the elements of that happening.
但是我要说的是，以上所说的所有要素现在其实都满足了
Anybody who dismisses the thought of a nuclear weapon
任何对自己说核武器不会被恐怖分子使用的人
being used by a terrorist is kidding themselves.
其实是在欺骗自己
I think there's a lot of people in the intelligence community —
我想很多情报部门的人
a lot of people who deal with this work in general think it's almost inevitable,
那些经常和这些工作打交道的人都认为这些袭击是不可避免的，
unless we do certain things to really try to defuse the risk,
除非我们采取某些措施，去尽可能地规避危险
like better interdiction, better prevention, better fixing,
比如更好的管制，更好的防范，更好的监测
you know, better screening of cargo containers that are coming into the country and so forth.
或者说，更好的筛查那些进口货物集装箱等等
There's a lot that can be done to make us a lot safer.
许许多多能让我们变得更安全的举措有待实施
At this particular moment, we actually could end up seeing a nuclear detonation in one of our cities.
此时此刻，我们完全有可能目睹核弹在我们的城市中爆炸
I don't think we would see an all-out nuclear war any time soon,
我不认为我们在近期内会遇到全面爆发的核战争
although even that is not completely off the table.
虽然这也不是完全不可能
There's still enough nuclear weapons in the arsenals of the superpowers to destroy the Earth many, many times over.
各个超级大国里的军火库里有足够的核武器，可以毁灭地球很多很多次
There are flash points in India and Pakistan, in the Middle East, in North Korea, other places where the use of nuclear weapons,
印巴冲突一触即发，在中东，在北朝鲜或者其他地方
while initially locally, could very rapidly go into a situation where we'd be facing all-out nuclear war.
虽然刚开始可能只在区域范围内使用核武器，但有可能很快地发展并上升到一场全面核战争
It's very unsettling.
非常让人不安
演讲简介：
核恐怖已经随着冷战的结束而减弱，但是灾难医学专家伊文·雷德莱纳提醒我们这个威胁依然存在。他回顾了历史上一些荒谬的关于应对核袭击的对策，并给出了一些切实可行的在核袭击中生存的建议。
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