TED演讲:如何推翻独裁统治(4)
That thing doesn't exist in the world.
世界上不存在这种革命。
Whenever you see young people in front of the road trying to fraternize with the police or military,
如果你看到年轻人在接上态度友好的和警察或者军队交涉，
somebody was thinking about it before.
肯定有人实现计划。
Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline,
最后我要谈一谈不使用暴力的重要性，
and this is probably the game-changer.
这在一场运动中可能会起到决定性的作用。
If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.
如果坚持非暴力斗争，你就会取得胜利。
You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,
如果十万人参加了非暴力游行，
and one idiot or agent provocateur is throwing stones,
如果其中一个白痴或者奸细扔了石头,
guess what takes all the cameras? That one guy.
媒体的镜头全都会对准这一个人。
One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.
一个暴力行为就可以毁掉整个运动。
Now let me move to another place.
现在我们看下一个问题。
It's selection of strategies and tactics.
战略和战术的甄选。
There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.
在非暴力斗争中遵守一些规则是必要的。
First, you start small.
第一，从小规模的运动开始。
Second, you pick the battles you can win.
第二，将精力集中在可能赢的活动上。
It's only 200 of us in this room.
今天出席的观众大约两百人。
We won't call for the March of Millions.
我们没办法组织百万人大游行。
But what if we organize spraying graffiti throughout the night all over Krakow city? The city will know.
如果我们趁夜晚在克拉科夫四处涂鸦呢？市民们一定会知道的。
So we pick the tactics which accommodates to the event,
因此，我们根据形势挑选策略，
especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.
尤其是运用分散的小规模策略。
They're very useful in a violent oppression.
这种策略在暴力镇压中特别有效。
We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used.
这张照片记录的就是有史以来最棒的策略之一。
It was on Tahrir Square, where the international community was constantly frightened that the Islamists will overtake the revolution.
这是在解放广场，国际社会一直担心伊斯兰教徒会在这里改变革命的性质。
Well, they've organized Christians protecting Muslims, who are there praying,
于是，他们安排了基督教徒保护正在祈祷的穆斯林，
Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims.
以及受到成千上万穆斯林祝福的科普特人婚礼。
The world has just changed the picture,
他们改变了世界的想法，
but somebody was thinking about this previously.
这一切都是事前计划。
So there are so many things you can do instead of getting into one place, shouting and showing off in front of the security forces.
除了聚集在一起，在安保人员面前大叫示威之外，还有很多其他的斗争方式。
Now there is also another very important dynamic,
事实上还有一种动态制衡也非常重要，
and this is a dynamic normally analytics don't see.
而且常被分析家忽略。
2011年，团结一心的人民掀起了一场又一场非凡的抵抗运动，反抗的火焰从阿拉伯之春蔓延到了整个世界。这种反抗运动为何如此有效？（2000年曾在塞尔维亚领导过推翻米洛舍维奇的非暴力抵抗运动的）Srdja Popovic介绍了组织此类活动所需的策略、技能和工具。
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