TED演讲之败中求胜 试验 排除错误和万能神力(10)
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Until then, until then I’m going to keep banging on about trial and error and why we should abandon the God complex.
到那时候，到那时候，我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题，以及为什么我们需要抛弃“万能神力”的态度。
Because it’s so hard to admit our own fallibility. It’s so uncomfortable.
因为我们很难承认我们自己是很容易犯错的。这令人感到很不舒服。
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
阿奇·卡克伦和其他人一样理解这一点。
There’s this one trial he ran many years after World War II.
这是二战后多年，他做的一个试验。
He wanted to test out the question of, where is it that patients should recover from heart attacks?
他想要测试出，病人心脏病发作后，应该在哪里康复？
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital, or should they recover at home?
他们是应该在医院的心脏科康复，还是在家康复？
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down. They had the God complex in spades.
所有心脏科医生都想要把他挡在门外。他们完全摆出一副拥有万能神力的样子。
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
他们知道医院才是病人康复的地方，
and they knew it was very unethical to run any kind of trial or experiment.
他们觉得做任何试验都是不道德的。
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this. He ran his trial.
无论如何，阿奇得到了试验的许可。
And after the trial had been running for a little while, he gathered together all his colleagues around his table,
他进行了试验，试验进行了一阵后， 他把他所有的同事召集到他桌旁，
and he said, “Well, gentlemen, we have some preliminary results.
说：“先生们，我们已经有了初步的结果。
They’re not statistically significant. But we have something.
这些数据在统计学上并不可观。但是我们有了些数据。
And it turns out that you’re right and I’m wrong.
结果表明你们是正确的我是错的。
演讲简介：
经济作家提姆·哈福德研究复杂的系统，他在成功的事例中发现了意想不到的链接：它们都经历了试验和不断排除错误的过程。 在这个精彩的TEDGlobal 2011 演讲中，他呼吁我们接纳随机性并开始学会犯些有益的错误。