TED演讲:如何用创新来克服危机?(7)
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Now you can see some of the reasons why I’m optimistic. Globalization is increasing the demand for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.
现在你可以理解我为什么对此充满信心。全球化在增大对创新的需求，这是创新的动力。
Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.
教育投资使我们产出更多的创新想法。
In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. From about the beginnings of humanity to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.
事实上，如果你看看世界历史你可以看到一些乐观的理由。从人类的起源到1500年，经济增长率为零，没有任何增长。
1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth, but less in a century than you expect to see in a year today.
1500至1800年，只有一点点的经济增长。但那时一个世纪的经济增长比现在一年的增长还少。
1900s: maybe one percent. Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent. Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.
1900年代，增长率大约是百分之一。二十世纪，百分之二多一点。二十一世纪，增长率可达到百分之3.3，或者更高。
Even at that rate, by 2100 average GDP per capita in the world will be $200,000. That’s not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,
即使是以这样的速度发展，到2100年，世界人均国内生产总值将达到20万美元。这不是美国的人均国内生产总值，它将超过100万。
but world GDP per capita — $200,000. That’s not that far. We won’t make it. But some of our grandchildren probably will.
但世界人均国内生产总值是20万美元。这不是远不可及的。我们看不到那一天了。但我们的孙子们大概会的。
And I should say, I think this is a rather modest prediction. In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy. In Kurzweilian terms I’m like the Eeyore of economic growth.
而且据我看，我认为这是一个相当适中的预测。在Kurzweilian看来，这个预测很悲观。在Kurzweilian看来，我象Eeyore的角色一样，对经济增长很悲观。
Alright what about problems? What about a great depression? Well let’s take a look. Let’s take a look at the Great Depression.
好。那么会遇到什么样的问题呢？大萧条会不会再发生？那么让我们来看看。让我们来看一下大萧条时期。