TED演讲之败中求胜 试验 排除错误和万能神力(6)
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So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
所以这就是我们所处环境的复杂性。
This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting.
这也许正是为什么我们发现“万能神力”这么有吸引力的原因。
We tend to retreat and say, “We can draw a picture, we can post some graphs, we get it, we understand how this works.”
我们喜欢退一步说：“我们可以来画一张图，我们可以贴出图表，我们知道这是怎么运作的。”
And we don’t. We never do. Now I’m not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
但是我们不知道，我们从来都不知道。我不是要在这里传递一个虚无主义的信息。
I’m not trying to say we can’t solve complicated problems in a complicated world. We clearly can.
我不是想说我们不能在复杂的世界里解决复杂的问题。我们显然是可以的。
But the way we solve them is with humility — to abandon the God complex and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
但我们需要用一种谦逊的态度来解决问题。要抛弃“万能神力”的态度。
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
我们要用实际可行的问题解决方法。
Now you show me a successful complex system, and I will show you a system that has evolved through trial and error.
你给我举一个成功的复杂系统，我能展示给你看，看看这个系统是如何在试验和排除错误中不断演进的。
Here’s an example. This baby was produced through trial and error.
这里有一个例子。这个孩子是通过试验和排除错误产生的。
I realize that’s an ambiguous statement. Maybe I should clarify it.
我知道这是一个模糊的说法，也许我应该澄清。
This baby is a human body: it evolved. What is evolution?
这个孩子是人类个体，他进化了。什么是进化？
Over millions of years, variation and selection, variation and selection — trial and error, trial and error.
经历了几百万年的变种和选择，变种和选择，试验和排除错误，试验和排除错误。
And it’s not just biological systems that produce miracles through trial and error.
不只是生物系统，在试验和排除错误中缔造神奇。
You could use it in an industrial context.
你可以把它用于产业环境中。
So let’s say you wanted to make detergent.
比如你要生产清洁剂。
Let’s say you’re Unilever and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
比如你是联合利华，你要在利物浦旁边的一家工厂生产清洁剂。
演讲简介：
经济作家提姆·哈福德研究复杂的系统，他在成功的事例中发现了意想不到的链接：它们都经历了试验和不断排除错误的过程。 在这个精彩的TEDGlobal 2011 演讲中，他呼吁我们接纳随机性并开始学会犯些有益的错误。