哈佛国际赛12月辩题正反方论点Top4｜Top 4 Pros and Cons
12月辩题 Public Forum Debate
Resolved: The United States federal government should forgive all federal student loan debt.
学生贷款债务经常出现在新闻中，政客们正在讨论如何解决大学成本上升的问题，这些成本有时会导致巨额债务。对于那些未偿还学生贷款的人来说，此类债务可以通过两种方式解除：免除债务和破产。
根据美联储的数据，截至2020年12月，美国人总共欠下1.71万亿美元的学生贷款债务。相比之下，2010年12月，美国人欠下约8450亿美元的学生贷款债务，这意味着学生贷款债务在过去十年中增加了约102%。[1] [2]
根据美国教育部的数据，截至2020年底，有4290万美国人持有未偿还的学生贷款债务，约占美国成年人口的17%。75%背负校贷债务的学生进入了2年制或4年制大学，其余25%的学生也借了学费进入研究生院。大约6%的学生贷款债务超过10万美元——这一群体约占所有未偿学生贷款债务的三分之一，通常包括大学和研究生院的费用。大约40%的学生在离开大学时，未偿还的学生贷款在20,000美元到100,000美元之间。大约25%的人离开大学时负债少于20,000美元，30%的人离开大学时没有学生贷款债务。[3][4]
纽约联储报告称，到2020年初，约11%的学生贷款债务支付逾期或违约（逾期270天或以上）。从所有迹象来看，这笔债务以及逾期付款和违约，随着大学费用超过平均收入，大学费用将继续上升。[5] [6] [7]
截至2021年11月，估计有4320万学生借款人平均每人欠债39,351美元。[40]
一些人建议美国联邦政府免除部分或全部现有学生贷款债务，以减轻个人和国家的财务压力。学生债务减免提议的范围从每个借款人免除10,000美元（这将免除约1500万借款人持有的全部债务）到每个借款人50,000美元（这将免除约3600万借款人持有的全部债务）到计划免除所有未偿还的学生贷款债务。每项计划都将包括对那些逾期或违约账户的免除，以及对更多借款人的部分债务免除。[8]
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院估计，根据具体情况，十年内大学债务取消将花费3000亿美元，对于年收入低于125,000美元的借款人，一次性取消10,000美元，一次性取消9800亿美元每个借款人50,000美元。[43]
其他人则提议通过破产更容易清偿学生贷款债务。信用卡债务、医疗费用、汽车贷款，甚至赌博债务都可以通过宣布破产来取消，但根据1976年的联邦法律，清偿学生贷款债务要困难得多。私人学生贷款也受到2005年《破产滥用预防和消费者保护法》的保护，不得免除。根据美国教育部的规定，根据第7章或第13章宣布破产的人可以取消学生贷款债务，但前提是法院认定有证据表明存在“过度困难”。然而，解除学生贷款非常困难且罕见，因此许多律师建议客户不要尝试：只有不到0.5%的学生通过破产清偿债务。[9][10][11][12][13]
2020年3月，在COVID-19大流行之初，特朗普暂停了联邦学生贷款支付、应计利息和债务催收。国会投票决定将暂停期限延长至2021年9月30日，特朗普再次将暂停期限延长至2021年1月。拜登总统上任后多次延长了暂停期限。他于2022年4月6日宣布的最新冻结将于2022年8月31日到期。虽然有些人不同意继续付款、暂停利息和收款，但其他人质疑为什么联邦学生贷款债务不能取消，如果联邦政府可以在近三年内不付款。[41]
2022年8月24日，拜登宣布短期贷款冻结至2022年12月31日，并取消“佩尔助学金接受者最多20,000美元的联邦学生贷款债务，以及其他符合条件的借款人最多10,000美元的债务”。白宫表示，约有4300万借款人有资格取消债务，其中2000万借款人有资格完全取消债务。债务取消计划自宣布以来一直深陷诉讼之中，导致该计划被法院搁置。2022年12月1日，美国最高法院表示将于2023年2月审理此案，维持中止审理。2023年6月30日，美国最高法院以联邦法律不允许美国教育部取消此类学生贷款为前提，以6比3的投票否决了该学生贷款计划。[42][48][49][50]
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院估计，拜登2022年8月计划中的债务取消部分将花费高达5190亿美元，其他部分（例如基于收入的还款计划）会增加额外成本。国会预算办公室 (CBO) 估计该计划将在30年内耗资4000亿美元。[44][47]
Should Student Loan Debt Be Eliminated via Forgiveness or Bankruptcy?
Top 4 Pros
Pro 1
Student loan debt is slowing the national economy.Forgiveness would boost the economy, benefiting everyone.Student loan debt slows new business growth and quashes consumer spending.
A Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia study found “a significant and economically meaningful negative correlation” between student loan debt and the falling rate of new small businesses. Such debt can make getting a business (or any other) loan difficult, so people with student loan debt are less likely to be able to open businesses. And the effects snowball from there: fewer small businesses means fewer jobs and less economic output and consumer spending, which in turn means lower national income and slow economic growth for the country. [14] [15] [15]
As William Foster, Vice President Senior Credit Officer, explained, “U.S. real GDP could be boosted on average by $86 billion to $108 billion per year, [which is] quite a bit… That’s if you had total loan forgiveness.” Though Foster stated total forgiveness isn’t necessary to see a positive impact. [16]
President Joe Biden, when announcing his loan cancellation program, stated, “I ran for office to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out because when we do that, everyone does better, everybody does well. The wealthy do very well, the poor have a way up, and the middle class can have breathing room. And that’s going to help America win the economic competition of the 21st century…. That’s what today’s announcement is about. It’s about opportunity. It’s about giving people a fair shot. It’s about the one word America can be defined by: possibilities. It’s all about providing possibilities.” [46]
When everyone can’t participate in the economy, the whole economy suffers.
Pro 2
Student loan debt has disproportionately hurt black students.Forgiveness could help rectify racial inequity.
Black college students borrow more than their white counterparts due to family income, generational wealth, parental education, and the types of colleges attended. [17]
According to Judith Scott-Clayton,Senior Research Scholar with the Community College Research Center at Columbia University, interest rates and graduate school loans leave black graduates with twice as much debt as white graduates, almost $53,000 four years after graduation.Scott-Clayton also noted black graduates default on student loans at a rate of 21% while white graduates default at 4%. The disparity, she explains, is the result of most black students who default having attended predatory for-profit colleges that have overall higher default rates for all students. [17]
Ashley Harrington, Federal Advocacy Director and Senior Counsel at the Center for Responsible Lending, explained the catch-22 in which students of color often find themselves: “The student debt crisis is absolutely a racial justice issue. For brown and Black folks, they often need to get more education to get the same salaries and positions that white folks can get with less education and that means how do they do that? They have to take on more debt… [The debt is then] preventing wealth building, This is something that is impacting not just individuals, it’s impacting their families, their communities.” [18]
An Aug. 2020 Roosevelt Institute study concluded, “[W]hile individual white borrowers at the median stand to gain the most in absolute dollars from student debt cancellation, the relative gains for Black borrowers are much larger and the greater proportion of Black borrowers means that Black wealth overall would experience more growth as a result. Given the many advantages wealth confers in the contemporary U.S. context, the substantial increase in Black net worth is a very significant positive contribution of student debt cancellation, one with potentially transformative positive impacts for Black families overall.” The help provided by student loan debt forgiveness exceeds simple dollar amounts.[19]
Pro 3
Student loan debt has infantilized a generation or more of Americans, preventing them from achieving milestones such as getting married, buying a house, or saving for retirement. Discharging such debt would help foster a healthier, most productive, more socially constructive citizenry.
For women with bachelor’s degrees, each increase in $1,000 of student loan debt decreased the odds of marriage by 2% per month in the four years after graduation. [14]
Student loan debt prevented about 400,000 people from buying homes between 2005 and 2014, which accounted for 25% of the decrease in home-ownership. Every $1,000 increase in student loan debt lowered the home ownership rate by 1.5% for those who attended four-year colleges. Further, student loan debtors save half as much for retirement by age 30 as those without debt. [14] [20] [14]
An Aug. 2020 Roosevelt Institute study explained, “The positive effects of an evidence-based student debt cancellation policy for individuals and households extend far beyond the immediate need of removing burdensome debt. The ramifications for financial and personal well-being, credit, job stability and satisfaction, homeownership earlier in the life course, capacity to build wealth for emergencies, human capital investments, family stability, and accumulating wealth can multiply throughout a person’s life.” Choosing to go to college to compete in the job market shouldn’t prevent people from living the American dream. [19]
Pro 4
Denying student loan debtors the benefits of bankruptcy–benefits that all other debtors have access to–is unfair.
The U.S. Supreme Court said in 1915 that the benefits of bankruptcy allow debtors to “start afresh free from the obligations and responsibilities.” Famous business leaders from Henry Ford to President Donald Trump have used bankruptcy for a fresh start. [21]
[22]
Car loans, credit card charges, medical bills, and even gambling debts can be discharged in bankruptcy; not allowing educational debt to be discharged is unfair. Mark Huelsman, Senior Policy Analyst at Demos, wrote, “[I]n a world where most students must borrow for a credential, borrowers should receive the same failsafe protections on these loans as they do on any other consumer loan.” [13] [23]
Students who didn’t understand the consequences of taking out big loans at age 18 or who were misled about future job prospects can be saddled with six-figure debt for decades. [24] [25]
Top 4 Cons
Con 1
Student loan forgiveness is an abuse of the loan system. People must be held responsible for their personal economic choices.
A 2020 survey found 46% of Americans believe student loan forgiveness is unfair to those who have paid off their loans, and 39% believe it unfair to those without loans. [26]
Matthew Noyes, columnist at Lone Conservative, who noted the sacrifices he had to make to pay off his $27,000 in student loans, explained, “Taking out a loan is a choice, and personal responsibility shouldn’t be supplanted by taxpayer bailouts. ‘Canceling’ student loans means penalizing people like me for honoring my word and repaying the debt I chose to accept.” [27]
Noyes states that the forgiveness debate is steeped in the idea that “people are entitled to a college education and other peoples’ hard work. It codifies in policy the idea that adults are not responsible for their own actions (i.e. taking on debt). In a free society, I am not entitled to a college education and neither is anyone else.” [27]
Further, less than 20% of American adults have student loan debt. Is it fair to offer relief to people who over-stretched their financial capabilities to go to college and not those without student loans debt but who may still struggle financially? [28]
Con 2
Student loan debt forgiveness would disproportionately help rich or more financially secure college graduates.
Constantine Yannelis, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, found, “Any policy that is a universal loan forgiveness policy or a capped forgiveness policy — say forgiving debt up to $50,000 — is going to give most of the dollars in forgiveness to upper-income individuals… Basically, most of the benefits will end up accruing to upper-income individuals.” [29]
As journalist Emma Ayers added, “Students from families earning more than $114,000 a year borrow at the same rate as the lowest-income students — and they take out loans nearly twice as large. Students with advanced degrees — lawyers, doctors and others — account for 40% of all student debt [according to estimates by American Progress]. And the top 25% of income-earning households hold almost half of student loan debt… Student forgiveness would largely be a hand up to the better off.” [30]
Moreover, as Adam Looney, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, pointed out, student loan forgiveness only benefits people who went to college: “More than 90 percent of children from the highest-income families have attended college by age 22 versus 35 percent from the lowest-income families. Workers with bachelor’s degrees earn about $500,000 more over the course of their careers than individuals with high school diplomas That’s why about 34 percent of all student debt is owed by borrowers in the top quartile of the income distribution and only 12 percent owed by the bottom 25 percent. Indeed, the majority of all student debt is owed by borrowers with graduate degrees.” [31]
People who borrowed for masters degrees and PhDs hold 56% of student loan debt, according to Brookings Institute estimates. Holding a masters or doctorate degree is also correlated to higher incomes. People with master’s degrees earn about $2.7 million over a lifetime, more than twice what those with high school diplomas earn ($1.3 million). PhD holders earn $3.3 million more over a lifetime. [32] [33]
Inez Stepman, Senior Policy Analyst at Independent Women’s Forum for Prager University, argued, “the people who staff government bureaucracies, corporate HR departments, and school administrations—the people chiefly responsible for the woke mini-revolutions upending institution after institution [will benefit]. For this managerial class, student loan forgiveness would be great,” but the $300 billion to $1.9 trillion tax burden would be shouldered largely by the working class that didn’t attend college. [45]
Con 3
Discharging student loan debt would only be a temporary bandage for the much larger problem of inflated college costs.
The U.S. already has several student loan forgiveness programs and yet we’re still in a student loan debt crisis.
People who work in public service jobs can have their loans forgiven after 120 loan payments. Some teachers can have up to $17,500 forgiven after five years of teaching. Nurses can have up to 60% of nursing education loans forgiven, followed by another 25%. [8]
Income-driven repayment (IDR) plans are available that allow loans to be forgiven after 20-25 years of income-based payments. Military members can have up to 100% of their loans forgiven. Medical doctors and lawyers have multiple options for forgiveness. AmeriCorps service members can have 100% of their loans forgiven. [8]
Betsy Mayotte, President and Founder of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, noted, “To me the free or debt-free college proposals hold more weight [than loan forgiveness], as they address the illness itself rather than just the symptoms. Don’t get me wrong — if we could find a way to do both, we should — but reducing the debt consumers have to take out in the first place would be the thing that would have the longer-lasting benefit to the economy.” [15]
The U.S. needs a solution to outsized college costs that cause students to take out loans in the first place, rather than a temporary solution that does nothing to prevent the next generation from accruing similar debt.
Con 4
Student loan discharge via bankruptcy would allow borrowers to abuse the loan system and encourage colleges to increase tuition.
Making it easier to discharge loans would give people an incentive to take out loans with no intention of paying them back, or to borrow more than they need. Which, in turn, could cause them to seek bankruptcy without fully realizing the negative long-term consequences on their credit scores and other aspects of their lives. [34] [35] [36]
New college graduates rarely have significant assets to surrender in bankruptcy, so they have less incentive to avoid bankruptcy. [37]
Student debt elimination through bankruptcy would encourage increased borrowing, and more borrowing leads to higher tuition. Abigail Hall Blanco, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa, said, “loan forgiveness would be one giant subsidy, creating perverse incentives for both schools and students. If schools knew the government would forgive the cost of their students’ education, they’d face no incentive to cut costs to keep tuition down.” [38] [39]
Sources
1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Consumer Credit – G.19,” federalreserve.gov, Apr. 7, 2021
2. Abigail Johnson Hess, “U.S. student debt has increased by more than 100% over the past 10 years,” cnbc.com, Dec. 22, 2020
3. US Department of Education Federal Student Aid, “Federal Student Loan Portfolio,” studentaid.gov, 2020
4. Dudley L. Poston, Jr., “3 Ways That the U.S. Population Will Change over the Next Decade,” pbs.org, Jan. 2, 2020
5. New York Federal Reserve Center for Microeconomic Data, “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2020: Q1,” newyorkfed.org, May 2020
6. US Department of Education Federal Student Aid, “Coronavirus and Forbearance Info for Students, Borrowers, and Parents,” studentaid.gov (accessed May 6, 2021)
7. Carmen Maldonado, “Price Of College Increasing Almost 8 Times Faster Than Wages,” forbes.com, July 24, 2018
8. Hanneh Gundersen, “Federal student loan forgiveness update: See where the latest policies and proposals stand,” msn.com, May 5, 2021
9. Ashlee Kieler, “You Can’t Discharge Your Student Loans in Bankruptcy Because of Panicked 1970s Legislation,” consumerist.com, Mar. 17, 2015
10. John O’Connor, “Make Student Loan Debt Dischargeable in Bankruptcy… Again,” natlbankruptcy.com, Feb. 28, 2014
11. Federal Student Aid, “Discharge in Bankruptcy,” studentaid.ed.gov (accessed Jan. 4, 2018)
12. Bill Fay, “Bankruptcy & Student Loans,” debt.org (accessed Jan. 4, 2018)
13. Brett Greene, “The $1 Trillion Student Loan Debt Bubble: An Interview with Robert Applebaum,” huffingtonpost.com, Nov. 11, 2011
14. Christopher Ingraham, “7 Ways $1.6 Trillion in Student Loan Debt Affects the U.S. Economy,” washingtonpost.com, June 25, 2019
15. Elyssa Kirkham, “What Are the Effects of Student Loan Debt on the Economy? Experts Share Their Thoughts,” studentloanhero.com, Oct. 28, 2019
16. Chris Arnold, “Forgiving Student Debt Would Boost Economy, Economists Say,” npr.org, Nov. 25, 2019
17. Judith Scott-Clayton, “Shrinking Racial Gaps in Student Debt and Default: Recommendations to Congress,” ccrc.tc.columbia.edu, Mar. 6, 2019
18. Cristina Silva, “The Student Debt Crisis Is Crushing Black Americans. Here’s How Loan Forgiveness Could Help,” usatoday.com, Apr. 15, 2021
19. Raphaël Charron-Chenier, Louise Seamster, Tom Shapiro, and Laura Sullivan, “Student Debt Forgiveness Options: Implications for Policy and Racial Equity,” rooseveltinstitute.org, Aug. 2020
20. Knowledge @ Wharton, “The Student Debt Crisis: Could It Slow the U.S. Economy?,” knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu, Oct. 22, 2018
21. US Supreme Court, Williams v. United States Fid. & Guar. Co., justia.com, 1915
22. Ethan Trex, “7 Wildly Successful People Who Survived Bankruptcy,” mentalfloss.com, Nov. 6, 2015
23. Mark Huelsman, “Want to Help Struggling Student Loan Borrowers? Start with Bankruptcy Reform,” demos.org, May 31, 2017
24. Jeffrey J. Selingo, “Did Your College Mislead You About Job Prospects? It Might Become Far Easier to Have Your Loans Forgiven.,” washingtonpost.com, July 20, 2016
25. Megan Thompson, “Are You Older Than 60 and Paying off Student Loans? Tell Us Your Story.,” pbs.org, Sep. 3, 2017
26. Rebecca Safier, “50% Say Mass Student Loan Forgiveness Unfair to Former Borrowers: Survey,” studentloanhero.com, Apr. 29, 2020
27. Matthew Noyes, “‘Canceling’ Student Debt is Unfair to Graduates Like Me Who Sacrificed to Pay Off Our Loans,” fee.org, Jan. 26, 2021
28. Zack Friedman, “Why Student Loans Should Not Get Cancelled,” forbes.com, Feb. 24, 2021
29. Knowledge @ Wharton, “How Student Loan Forgiveness Could Increase Inequality,” knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu, Dec. 15, 2020
30. Emma Ayers, “I Sold Bibles to Keep My Student Debt Low. Turns out, I Didn’t even Need That Degree,” usatoday.com, Dec. 3, 2020
31. Adam Looney, “How Progressive Is Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Loan Forgiveness Proposal?,” brookings.edu, Apr. 24, 2019
32. Michelle Cheng, “What Will Canceling $10,000 in Student Debt Really Do?,” qz.com, Mar. 2, 2021
33. Anthony Carnevale, Stephen J. Rose, and Ban Cheah, “The College Payoff: Education, Occupation, Lifetime Earnings,” 2011
34. Kelsey Sheehy, “Undergrads Blow It with Student Loan Refunds,” usnews.com, July 24, 2013
35. Mike Brown, “Spring Break Student Loan Study,” lendedu.com, Mar. 8, 2017
36. Federal Student Aid, “Understanding Delinquency and Default,” studentaid.ed.gov (accessed Jan. 2, 2018)
37. Rajeev Darolia, “Should Student Loans Be Dischargeable in Bankruptcy?,” brookings.edu, Sep. 29, 2015
38. Grey Gordon and Aaron Hedlund, “Accounting for the Rise in College Tuition,” nber.org, Feb. 2016
39. Abigail Hall Blanco, “Don’t Forgive Us Our Debts: The Case against Student Loan Forgiveness,” insidesources.com, Apr. 14, 2015
40. Melanie Hanson, “Student Loan Debt Statistics,” educationdata.org, Nov. 17, 2021
41. Marcos Cabello, “Biden Extends Pause on Student Loan Payments through August,” cnet.com, Apr. 6, 2022
42. Cory Turner and Sequoia Carrillo, “Biden Is Canceling Up to $10K in Student Loans, $20K for Pell Grant Recipients,” npr.org, Aug. 24, 2022
43. Junlei Chen, “Forgiving Student Loans: Budgetary Costs and Distributional Impact,” budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu, Aug. 23, 2022
44. Junlei Chen, “The Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Plan: Budgetary Costs and Distributional Impact,” budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu, Aug. 26, 2022
45. Inez Stepman, “The Student Loan Forgiveness Scam,” prageru.com, Aug. 8, 2022
46. White House, “Remarks by President Biden Announcing Student Loan Debt Relief Plan,” whitehouse.gov, Aug. 25, 2022
47. Ayana Archie, “Joe Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan Will Cost $400 Billion, Budget Office Says,” npr.org, Sep. 27, 2022
48. Arlette Saenz and Katie Lobosco, “Biden Extends Student Loan Repayment Freeze As Forgiveness Program Is Tied Up in Courts,” cnn.com, Nov. 22, 2022
49. Ariane de Vogue, “Supreme Court Says Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Program Remains Blocked for Now, Schedules Arguments for February,” cnn.com, Dec. 1, 2022
50. Nina Totenberg and Meghanlata Gupta, “Supreme Court Kills Biden’s Student Debt Plan in a Setback for Millions of Borrowers,” npr.org, June 30, 2023
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正在报名｜哈佛国际辩论锦标赛「Harvard Debate Council Intl Tournaments Dec 2023」
Resolved: The United States federal government should forgive all federal student loan debt.
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系列赛事报名及回顾：
赛报：UCLA邀请赛公开组辩手Top1、四强|UCLA Speech & Debate Invitational
赛报：西雅图大学辩论锦标赛冠、亚军｜Seattle University Debate Tournament
赛报：哈佛国际辩论秋季赛冠军「Harvard Debate Council International Tournaments」
赛报：全美议会辩论联盟秋季赛优秀辩手 Top3｜NPDL Fall Invitational 2023
赛报：31届耶鲁邀请赛VPF八强｜31st Yale Invitational Tournament Int’l Quarter
赛报：亚洲青少年辩论锦标赛季军｜Asia Junior Championship Summer 2023
赛报：WSC厦门全球轮总分冠军｜2023世界学者杯World Scholar’s Cup 厦门全球轮 晋级耶鲁冠军轮
赛报：印度-太平洋世界学校辩论锦标赛季军｜Indo-Pacific WSDC 2023
赛报：亚洲学校辩论公开赛打入决赛｜BP赛事「Asia Schools Open 2023」
赛报：亚洲青少年世界学校辩论锦标赛亚军｜Junior WSDC 2023
赛报：亚太青少年/亚太辩论锦标赛季军、八强｜Asia Pacific Junior Debating Championships
赛报：平均年龄最小的WSC辩论冠军｜2023世界学者杯World Scholar’s Cup
赛报：包揽3个组别冠军｜Seattle University PF Debate Tournament
赛报：“收割式”获奖WSC合肥赛｜2023世界学者杯World Scholar’s Cup
赛报：刷新哈佛锦标赛16强最小年龄记录｜49th Harvard、37th Stanford、Tufts Harvard
赛报：塔夫茨&哈佛国际辩论锦标赛冠军｜Tufts Harvard Debate Intl Tournaments
赛报：哥伦比亚大学邀请赛JV PF组八强+优辩｜2023 Columbia University Invitational
赛报：哈佛PF冠军赛公开组辩手TOP 1｜Harvard Debate PF Championships
赛报：哈佛 Junior WSD 冠军｜Harvard Asian Junior Debate Tournament
赛报｜伦敦政治经济学院BP锦标赛 LSE Debate Juniors：季军，优秀辩手第6名、第7名
赛报：哈佛 Junior Extemp 冠军｜Harvard Asian Junior Debate Tournament
赛报｜乔治城大学秋季赛：Novice LD组冠军，HS Junior Varsity LD组第三！
赛报：包揽冠亚季军｜西雅图大学锦标赛SDcamps继续“霸屏”！
赛事简报｜乔治城秋季赛：2支中国队首次打入该项赛事的淘汰赛，1支打入16强！
创造历史！西雅图战报：中国选手打入决赛获得亚军/中国辩手排名进入前2、前4！
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