TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(5)
So the first one has to do with culture, society, the people around you.
首先是与文化和社会因素有关，那些你身边的人。
If you think that someone around you is going to help pick you up when you fall,
如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候，你身边的人会帮助你，
you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.
那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。
And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones.
那么这就使我们能够把握好机会，而不是坏的。
For example, like risking criticism when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you to talk about.
比如对风险的评判，当你谈到没有人愿意跟你聊的风险。
Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary, so in their own way are gray rhinos.
或者把握住有一点吓人的机会。那么对于他们而言，这是经常被提示却未被重视的大概率风险，即“灰犀牛”。
So the US has a very individualist culture — go it alone.
在美国就有一种个人主义的文化——独自完成。
And paradoxically, this makes many Americans much less open to change and taking good risks.
矛盾的是，这使得很多美国人更不敢去改变，并且承担有回报的风险。
In China, by contrast, people believe that the government is going to keep problems from happening, which might not always be what happens, but people believe it.
在中国，与之相反，人民相信政府会把问题在根源解决，其实事实上并不总如此，但是人民选择相信。
They believe they can rely on their families, so that makes them more likely to take certain risks.
他们相信他们可以依靠他们的家庭，这样让他们更有能力承担相应的风险。
Like buying Beijing real estate, or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction, and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.
像是在北京买房，或者在面对需要改变目标或方向时更加从容，并且事实上，中国改变的速度是惊人的。
Second of all, how much do you know about a situation, how much are you willing to learn?
其次，你对当下的情况了解多少，你是否意愿去学习？
And are you willing to see things even when it's not what you want?
以及你是否愿意看到你其实并不想看到的事情。
So many of us are so unlikely to pay attention to the things that we just want to black out, we don't like them.
我们很多人不太可能愿意去关注我们想要屏蔽的事情，我们不喜欢它们。
We pay attention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with.
我们会注意想看到的，喜欢以及认同的事情。
米歇尔·沃克拥有莱斯大学的法语和政策研究学士学位以及哥伦比亚大学国际事务硕士学位，她是美国作家，评论家和政策分析家，Gray Rhino公司创始人，专门研究世界经济和危机预期。为什么我们常常忽视那些大问题直到时间太晚，比如经济危机，气候变化？作为政策策略家她鼓励我们用“灰犀牛”——那些可以预防却被我们忽视的危险，去替代“黑天鹅”的神话——小概率、无法预见又无法避免的灾难。她向我们展示了为什么可遇见的危机仍让我们意外——并且给出了一些信息，有可能有一个"犀牛"正支配你的生活。
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