TED演讲:解读灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(2)
As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down. Banks collapsed, global stock markets lost nearly half their value,
如各位所知，2008年一切都轰然倒塌。银行倒闭，全世界的股票市场丢失了接近一半的价值，
millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure. And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work.
数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。而在社会基层，将近十分之一的美国人失业了。
So after things calmed down a little bit, Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said,
所以在事情缓和了一些以后，格林斯潘和许多人从这个低谷中走出来说：
“Nobody could have predicted that crisis.” They called it “a black swan.”
“没有人会有可能提前预知这场危机。”他们叫它“黑天鹅”。
Something that was unimaginable, unforeseeable and completely improbable. A total surprise. Except it wasn’t always such a surprise.
一个很难想象的，不可预知并且完全难以置信的事情。一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。只是它不总是一个惊喜。
For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value in less than four years. I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.
比如说，我在曼哈顿的公寓在不到四年的时间里价值几乎翻了一倍。我获得了一些信息，于是我将它出售了。
So, a lot of other people also saw the warning, spoke out publicly and they were ignored.
总之，很多其他人也看到了同样的警示，公开地说了出来，但是这些信息都被忽视了。
So we didn’t know exactly what the crisis was going to look like, not the exact parameters,
所以我们并不准确地知道这场危机到底会是什么模样，不知道确切的参数，
but we could all tell that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.
但是我们可以说这个即将到来的事情和一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛一样的危险可见，可预判。
米歇尔·沃克拥有莱斯大学的法语和政策研究学士学位以及哥伦比亚大学国际事务硕士学位，她是美国作家，评论家和政策分析家，Gray Rhino公司创始人，专门研究世界经济和危机预期。为什么我们常常忽视那些大问题直到时间太晚，比如经济危机，气候变化？作为政策策略家她鼓励我们用“灰犀牛”——那些可以预防却被我们忽视的危险，去替代“黑天鹅”的神话——小概率、无法预见又无法避免的灾难。她向我们展示了为什么可遇见的危机仍让我们意外——并且给出了一些信息，有可能有一个”犀牛”正支配你的生活。