TED演讲之伟大预言 凯文·凯利:谈未来5000天后的网络世界(1)
The Internet, the Web as we know it, the kind of Web — the things we’re all talking about — is already less than 5,000 days old.
互联网，又称网络，我们所说的网络，其历史还不到5000天。
So all of the things that we’ve seen come about, starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,
这期间发生的所有事情，比如整个地球的卫星图片，
which we couldn’t even imagine happening before, all these things rolling into our lives,
都是你以前无法想象的，这些闯入我们生活的所有东西，
just this abundance of things that are right before us, sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.
这些多彩多姿的东西，就在我们眼前，在笔记本电脑或是桌面电脑上。
This kind of cornucopia of stuff just coming and never ending is amazing, and we’re not amazed.
这样的东西像聚宝盆一样，永远不会枯竭，真是令人惊讶，但我们好像并不觉得惊奇。
It’s really amazing that all this stuff is here. It’s in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.
真地很神奇，所有东西都在这儿。在短短的5000天之内，所有东西都出现了。
And I know that 10 years ago, if I had told you that this was all coming, you would have said that that’s impossible.
如果我在10年前告诉你，这些东西将要到来，你会说，这是不可能的。
There’s simply no economic model that that would be possible.
原因很简单，没有任何一套经济模型能支持它的存在。
And if I told you it was all coming for free, you would say, this is simply — you’re dreaming.
如果我又说，它会是免费的。你会回答，你在做梦。
You’re a Californian utopian. You’re a wild-eyed optimist. And yet it’s here.
你是加利福尼亚空想家。你是狂热的乐观主义者。然而，它已出现在我们面前。
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago, as I looked at what even Wired was talking about, we thought it was going to be TV, but better.
我们知道的另一件事，是在10年前 我看到Wired（连线杂志）上说， 我们认为下一个将会是电视，但会更好。
That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting was going to be coming.
它已经是典范，所以大家都认为它会来临。
And it turns out that that’s not what it was. First of all, it was impossible, and it’s not what it was.
结果，却不是大家所想象的那样。第一，它不可能；第二，它以前没发生过。
And so one of the things that I think we’re learning — if you think about, like, Wikipedia, it’s something that was simply impossible.
我想我们学到的经验之一就是—— 想象维基百科，就是个‘不可能’的例子——
It’s impossible in theory, but possible in practice. And if you take all these things that are impossible,
理论上不可行，但实际上却可行。如果你能接受这些不可能，
I think one of the things that we’re learning from this era, from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible, because we’re unprepared for it.
从这个世纪、从过去10年里，我们学到的东西之一就是，我们最好接受不可能的事，因为我们还没准备好。
So, I’m curious about what’s going to happen in the next 5,000 days.
因此我对于未来5000天感到好奇。
But if that’s happened in the last 5,000 days, what’s going to happen in the next 5,000 days?
看看过去5000天发生的事，下一个5000天会有什么事发生呢？
So, I have a kind of a simple story, and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we’re making,
我有一个简单的报道，它提示我们应该好好思考，在下个5000天里，我们将制造出什么，
this thing that has happened in 5,000 days — that’s all these computers, all these handhelds, all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers
将发生什么事。到时，所有电脑、掌上设备、 手机、笔记本电脑、伺服器…等
–basically what we’re getting out of all these connections is we’re getting one machine.
简单地说，所有的连接，都将形成一部机器。
If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices are actually just little windows into those machines, but that we’re basically constructing a single, global machine.
“唯一”的一部机器，我们的掌上设备，不过是个小小视窗，我们正在建造的是一部唯一涵盖全球的机器。
演讲简介：
凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly）在2007年EG会议的演讲中说，大家现在所熟悉的万维网(World Wide Web)，其实也才不过5000天的岁月而已。那么在未来的5000天后，网络会变成什么样子呢？