TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(9)
I think what we’ll do is we’ll see a successful, very successful, private space flight industry.
我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的，非常成功的私人太空飞船行业。
Whether we’re first or not really doesn’t matter. The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde.
无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机。
And then they flew a few cargo flights, and took it out of service.
他们飞过一些货物航班，然后退役。
I think you kind of see the same kind of parallel when the commercial stuff is offered.
我想，当提供商业产品时你们见到过类似的情况。
OK, we’ll talk just a little bit about commercial development for human space flight.
好，我们就谈论一点儿人类太空飞行的商业发展。
This little thing says here: five times what NASA’s doing by 2020.
这张小投影片说飞五次，这是美国国家宇航局到2020年做的。
I want to tell you, already there’s about 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion investment in private space flight that is not government at all — already, worldwide.
我想要告诉你，已经有大约十点五亿至十点七亿投资用于私人太空飞行，这些投资完全不是来自政府；而是来自全世界。
If you read — if you Google it, you’ll find about half of that money,
如果你读到它–如果你搜索一下它，你会发现一半的资金，
but there’s twice of that being committed out there — not spent yet, but being committed and planned for the next few years.
但有两倍正准备投入那里的资金–还没有花，但正准备投入计划到未来几年。
Hey, that’s pretty big. I’m predicting, though, as profitable as this industry is going to be —
嘿，那数目非常大。我正在预测，尽管，这个工业的收益会很客观。
and it certainly is profitable when you fly people at 200,000 dollars on something that you can actually operate at a tenth of that cost, or less — this is going to be very profitable.
并且它确实是收益的，当你花200000美元让你的朋友乘飞船旅行时，事实上你可以只花费十分之一，或更少–这收入会非常客观。
I predict, also, that the investment that will flow into this will be somewhere around half of what the U.S. taxpayer spends for NASA’s manned spacecraft work.
我还预测，会注入此项事业的投资将会有相当于美国税收的一半之多，这些投资会用于美国国家宇航局的人造宇宙飞船工作。
And every dollar that flows into that will be spent more efficiently by a factor of 10 to 15.
注入此项事业的每一美元都会被更有效地利用，大约相差10到15。
And what that means is before we know it, the progress in human space flight, with no taxpayer dollars,
这意味着在我们之前就知道，人类太空飞行的进程，没有用纳税人的钱，
will be at a level of about five times as much as the current NASA budgets for human space flight.
将会比现在美国国家宇航局的预算多五倍，该预算用于人类太空飞行。
And that is because it’s us. It’s private industry. You should never depend on the government to do this sort of stuff — and we’ve done it for a long time.
那是因为是我们。它是私人的行业。你从不应该依赖政府去做这种事业–而且我们已经从事了很长时间。
The NACA, before NASA, never developed an airliner and never ran an airline.
美国航空资讯委员会，在美国国家宇航局之前，从未开发过客机，而且从未运营过航空线。
But NASA is developing the space liner, always has, and runs the only space line, OK.
但美国国家宇航局正在开发太空货机，总是拥有并且运营这唯一的太空航线，好吧。
And we’ve shied away from it because we’re afraid of it. But starting back in June of 2004, when I showed that a little group out there actually can do it,
我们避开它，因为我们害怕它。但是从2004年六月开始，当我展示在外太空的一个小组实际上能做到时，
can get a start with it, everything changed after that time. OK, thank you very much.
我们能够从它开始，从现在起改变每一件事情。好吧，非常感谢大家。
演讲简介：
在这篇热情洋溢的演讲中，传奇的宇宙飞船设计者伯特·鲁坦鞭笞美国停滞政府资助的空间探索项目，并呼吁企业家重拾这个美国国家宇航局中断的项目。