TED演讲之伟大预言 伯特·鲁坦: 预见太空未来(2)

Let’s take a snapshot at aviation. And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened.


It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, “Ooh, hey, I can do that.”


There’s only a few people that have flown in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes, thousand of pilots.


Airplanes were invented by natural selection. Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today,


but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.


There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried, and when they crash and kill the pilot, don’t try that again.


The ones that flew and landed OK because there were no trained pilots who had good flying qualities by definition.


So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts, in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts of the airplanes that we fly today.


And that’s why they’re so safe, as we gave it a lot of chance to find what’s good.


That has not happened at all in space flying. There’s only been two concepts tried — two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.


Well, who was inspired during that time period? Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.


And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.


Well, what happened when I was a little kid was — some pretty heavy stuff too. The jet age started: the missile age started.

那么,当我小的时候发生了什么– 也是非常重大的事件。喷气式飞机时代开始了,导弹时代开始了。

Von Braun was on there showing how to go to Mars — and this was before Sputnik.

冯·布劳恩在那里展示如何登上火星 — 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。

And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting than it is now.


We thought there’d be animals there; we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right?


But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they’ve sent these robots and they’ve landed it only in the deserts.





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