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TED演讲之伟大预言 胡安·恩利克斯:令人吃惊的新科技(1)

There's a great big elephant in the room called the economy. So let's start talking about that.

经济是个重要,而又常被避开的话题。让我们来聊下它。

I wanted to give you a current picture of the economy. That's what I have behind myself.

我想给你们看看目前的经济状况。这是我自己身后的东西。

But of course what we have to remember is this. And what you have to think about is, when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?

言归正传,当然我们需要记住的,并且你们需要思考的是,当你们在热焰上跳舞,后面会发生什么?

So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes is I'm going to talk first about the flames — where we are in the economy —

所以在接下来的17.5分钟里,我着意要做的是,首先要谈一谈这火焰,目前我们所处的经济状况。

and then I'm going to take three trends that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years and that will take place in this conference and I will try and bring them together.

接着我要提出三个趋势,这三个趋势已经在过去25年的TED大会上提到过,也会在这次的会议上涉及,并且我会尝试把它们联系到一起。

And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.

同时尝试展示给你们看终极的复苏会是怎样的。

Those three trends are the ability to engineer cells, the ability to engineer tissues, and robots. And somehow it will all make sense.

这三个趋势是,细胞工程,组织工程,机器人工程,并且大家都会理解。

But anyway, let's start with the economy. There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.

不过,我们还是从经济讲起吧,有一些非常大的问题仍然存在。

One is leverage. And the problem with leverage is it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.

一个是杠杆化,杠杆化的问题是,它把美国的财政系统弄成了这个样子。

So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage. That means for every dollar you deposit, it loans out about nine or 10.

一个普通的商业银行的杠杆率是9到10倍,这意味着你存进银行的每一块钱都能贷出大约9或者10块。

A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank, it's an investment bank; it has 15 to 20 times.

一个普通的投资银行不是存款银行,它是一个投资银行;有着大约15到20倍的杠杆率。

It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times. And your friendly Citibank had 47 times. Oops.

结果美洲银行在9月份是32倍。花旗银行有47倍。喔哦。

That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over. And that, of course, is the reason why all of you are making such generous and wonderful donations to these nice folks.

这就是说每笔坏帐会坏上47倍。那当然,就是为什么你们做出了这么慷慨和美妙的捐赠给这些人们。

And as you think about that, you've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now? It ain't pretty.

当你们在想这件事情的时候,你们会觉得好奇:那银行里现在还为你们存着些什么呢?显然不是很棒。

演讲简介

即使庞大的银行纷纷崩溃,胡安 恩利克斯认为巨大的复苏仍然会来到。但别指望你的选票会起作用,或者股票交易。它会来自科学实验室,并且会带来更敏捷的身体与思维。我们的后代将会变得不同。

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《TED演讲之伟大预言 胡安·恩利克斯:令人吃惊的新科技(1)》

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